The Running Man’s Box Office Hurdle: Why This Action Flick Might Just Trip Over Its Own Hype (Spoiler: Mercury’s Not Helping)
Added on November 13, 2025 inEntertainment News Cards, Movie News Cards
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Well, here we are again—Hollywood’s trying to close out the fall with a bang, but somehow it feels more like a fizz this year. With Mercury still doing its celestial dance, maybe it’s no wonder things are a bit off-kilter at the box office. Next weekend promises a phoenix moment with Wicked: For Good ready to shake things up, but this weekend? Not so much. We’ve got The Running Man and Now You See Me, Now You Don’t stepping into the ring, but spoiler alert: neither looks like they’ll knock the audience out. The hype train for Edgar Wright’s Stephen King adaptation has derailed faster than you can say “overexposed,” and with Glen Powell’s star beginning to flicker, it feels like the universe is giving us a heads-up to maybe sidestep this weekend’s heavy hitters. Meanwhile, Now You See Me might just sneak ahead thanks to its overseas cash flow, while Predator: Badlands is lurking as an underdog with word-of-mouth ammo. Oh, and let’s not forget Keeper, slipping in quietly but likely to fizzle under the radar—classic suicide release territory. So, are you braving the big screen this weekend, or waiting for Mercury to settle? Either way, the stars and the box office forecasts have spoken. LEARN MORE
Usually, this is the time of year when Hollywood starts unloading some serious firepower at the box office, and sure enough, next weekend sees the release of Wicked: For Good, which will — thankfully — reinvigorate the box office. Yet this weekend, which sees the release of two big-budget movies, The Running Man and Now You See Me, Now You Don’t, seems inevitably fated to be another disappointment in a fall season riddled with them.
Case in point: The Running Man. If you’d asked me a few months ago, I would have told you that Edgar Wright’s new take on the Stephen King novel couldn’t miss, boasting a big budget and a newly minted leading man in Glen Powell. Yet the hype for the film has all but collapsed in recent weeks, with it earning the worst reviews of Edgar Wright’s career. Having seen it myself, I must sadly admit that I don’t think audiences are going to be overly impressed, due to a rather poor script (even if the direction and performances are fairly strong). I also think Glen Powell has been overexposed (just like his Anything But You co-star, Sydney Sweeney), and when the public feels someone is being shoved down their throats, they tend to revolt. As such, The Running Man seems unlikely to open to much more than $20 million this weekend.
In fact, it could be beaten by Lionsgate’s Now You See Me, Now You Don’t. The third entry in this series, these movies have never been all that successful domestically, but overseas they’re big money earners. Yet the advance tracking on this one isn’t bad, meaning it might be a close race for number one, with projections around $16 million. I actually think Predator: Badlands, with its good word of mouth, could be a legitimate threat to both movies. There’s a chance it could rally and take first place at the box office this weekend if the drop-off isn’t significant. More likely, it’ll come in just ahead of Now You See Me with about $18 million for the weekend.
Keeper, despite being directed by genre fave Osgood Perkins, won’t open very well, as Neon is giving it the old “suicide release” — meaning it wasn’t screened for critics beforehand, which usually suggests it’s pretty terrible.
Here are our predictions:
What are you seeing this weekend? Let us know in the comments.
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