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      • Oscar Predictions That’ll Blow Your Mind Before Turkey Even Hits the Table—Scott’s Got 21 Categories Locked & Loaded!

      Oscar Predictions That’ll Blow Your Mind Before Turkey Even Hits the Table—Scott’s Got 21 Categories Locked & Loaded!

      Added on November 25, 2025 inMovie News Cards

      You know, the Oscars race feels a bit like Mercury in retrograde this year: full of unexpected twists, last-minute appearances, and intense jockeying for position under Hollywood’s watchful stars. Since the recent Governors Awards, the who’s who of Oscar hopefuls have swarmed the red carpet—not just to celebrate luminaries like Tom Cruise and Dolly Parton, but to make sure Oscar voters can’t help but notice them. From Leonardo DiCaprio to Ariana Grande, these heavy hitters are proving that sometimes, it’s all about being seen in the right cosmic moment.

      Meanwhile, Michael B. Jordan and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners have been gaining momentum with stylish industry events and awards buzz that has the race anything but settled. And don’t count out Warners’ One Battle After Another, a film that’s snagged praise across demographics and holds a strong lead in many predictions. A24’s Marty Supreme is soaring too, flooding LA skies with its name and filling theaters despite the rain—maybe a nod to some unstoppable Scorpio energy?

      With the Academy’s longlists now out and documentaries like Netflix’s Apocalypse in the Tropics creating waves alongside box office smashes such as Wicked: For Good, it’s clear this awards season is shaping up to be a celestial showdown. So, will the stars align for the expected favorites, or will a surprise eclipse shake things up? Let’s dive into Scott’s latest Oscar forecasts and see who’s truly in orbit for the gold.

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      A NOTE FROM SCOTT Since our last check-in, just about every current Oscar hopeful descended on Hollywood for the Academy’s Governors Awards on Nov. 16. They ostensibly were there to celebrate honorees Tom Cruise, Dolly Parton, Wynn Thomas and Debbie Allen, but let’s be honest: Leonardo DiCaprio (Warners’ One Battle After Another), Jennifer Lawrence (Mubi’s Die My Love), Adam Sandler (Netflix’s Jay Kelly) and Ariana Grande (Universal’s Wicked: For Good) don’t show up to the ceremony every year. They — and literally hundreds of others with varying awards prospects — were on the red carpet and in the ballroom because they’re great places to see and be seen by Oscar voters.

      So, too, was the American Cinematheque Award ceremony on Nov. 20, where Michael B. Jordan, star of Warners’ Sinners, was honored, and those toasting him included Sinners writer/director Ryan Coogler and actors Miles Caton and Delroy Lindo; Bradley Cooper, writer/director/star of Searchlight’s Is This Thing On?; and Tessa Thompson, star/producer of Amazon/MGM’s Hedda. It was but one of numerous Sinners-related events in recent days. Among others, Coogler received the “key” to Warner Bros. at the Somerville restaurant in the Windsor Hills part of LA — which was transformed into the Juke Joint, the Southern blues hall in the movie — on Nov. 21, with the rest of his principal collaborators in attendance. And on Nov. 22, they all turned up at a brunch at the Four Seasons in Beverly Hills.

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      Warners’ other major horse in the race, One Battle After Another, may be the frontrunner according to most prognosticators, including yours truly, and indeed it got another nod of approval last week from the retiree demographic with a field-leading eight AARP Award nominations. But Sinners, which cost a lot less ($90 million vs. $140 million, pre-marketing) and has grossed a lot more ($368 million vs. $202 million worldwide), clearly won’t be conceding the pole position without a fight. Another sign of its strength: it landed a field-leading 13 mentions across the Critics Choice Association’s 11 shortlists for below-the-line Critics Choice Award nominations, including at least one in every category. (Full disclosure: I served on the committee that determined those shortlists.)

      A24’s Marty Supreme, in addition to having an orange blimp with its name on it flying all around LA, has finally begun to screen more heavily for the industry, and is going over like gangbusters. On Nov. 13, it played at the DGA, after which Bill Simmons moderated a Q&A. The following night, despite pouring rain, it filled the 952-seat David Geffen Theatre at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures — attendees included Jennifer Lawrence, Mikey Madison, Cara Delevingne, Shawn Mendes and Chase Sui Wonders — after which I did a Q&A with writer/director/editor Josh Safdie, writer/editor Ronald Bronstein and stars Timothée Chalamet, Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’zion, among others.

      On Nov. 21, the Academy announced the longlists — meaning, the lists of all titles that have qualified for consideration — for its best animated feature, best documentary feature and best international feature categories, which numbered 35, 201 and 86, respectively.

      Speaking of the doc feature race, that came into clearer focus last week with Netflix’s Apocalypse in the Tropics garnering a field-leading four noms for the International Documentary Association’s IDA Awards (just as one of its subjects, former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, was arrested for attempting to escape a prison sentence). Another Netflix doc, The Perfect Neighbor, was shortlisted for the best film editing Critic Choice Award, while no other doc landed a spot on any of the organization’s 11 BTL shortlistsn. And the SCAD Savannah Film Festival released this year’s full Docs to Watch Panel, which was moderated by yours truly and featured the directors of 10 top docs — including the aforementioned two — in conversation about their films. Don’t miss it!

      As for the general public? Last weekend, they turned out in mass for the theatrical opening weekend of Wicked: For Good, to the tune of $147 million in the U.S. and $223 million globally, marking the biggest debut ever for a Broadway adaptation and the third-best for any musical. (Critics, it must be noted, were less enthusiastic: it’s now at 70 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.) In terms of streaming, Frankenstein was again the people’s choice on Netflix, watched more than any other English-language film, while newcomer Train Dreams, on the back of rave reviews (it’s at 95 percent on Rotten Tomatoes), broke into the top 10.

      Finally, the Camerimage festival in Poland, which celebrates cinematography, awarded its top prize, the Golden Frog, to Judith Kaufmann for her work on Music Box’s Late Shift, the Swiss entry for the best international feature competition, and its second-place prize, the Silver Frog, to Fabian Gamper for his work on Mubi’s Sound of Falling, the German entry. Will they be able to challenge, for Oscar nominations, the category’s presumptive frontrunners, including Focus’ Hamnet, One Battle After Another and Frankenstein? Time will tell.

      PLEASE REMEMBER: Scott’s forecasts do not necessarily reflect his personal preferences. His aim is not to advocate for what he thinks the members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences should do, but rather to project what they will do. He arrives at his projections by screening many films, analyzing their campaigns, speaking with voters and studying relevant history and stats.

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