The royal rumor mill is spinning once again, and this time, the odds aren’t in Meghan Markle and Prince Harry’s favor. According to new betting data from SportsCasting Bets, bookmakers are predicting a potential split, or even divorce, for the Duke and Duchess of Sussex by the end of 2026, amid growing speculation that the couple’s California fairytale may be losing its shine. The report comes as Prince Harry reportedly plans to skip King Charles’ upcoming birthday celebration, sparking renewed talk of a deepening royal rift. While the couple recently appeared united at Kris Jenner’s 70th birthday bash, insiders claim that tensions behind closed doors are running high, especially when it comes to where and how they’ll raise their two children, Prince Archie and Princess Lilibet.

SportsCasting Bets spokesperson Shane Orton said in an email sent to The Blast that the changing odds reflect both public skepticism and ongoing family tension. “They’ve built a huge brand together in the States, but cracks are beginning to show,” Orton explained. “With family tensions still unresolved and conflicting future plans, bettors are starting to back a royal breakup before 2026.”

Among the most telling figures? Meghan Markle’s potential royal memoir sits at -110, meaning oddsmakers see it as more likely than not to happen. The idea of Markle returning to acting full-time trails at +400, while Prince Harry resuming royal duties sits at +350.

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As of now, the odds are as follows:

• Meghan & Harry to split up: +150
• Meghan & Harry to divorce: +300
• Meghan to release royal memoir: -110
• Meghan to return to acting full-time: +400
• Prince Harry to resume royal duties: +350
• Prince Harry to move back to the U.K.: +500
• Couple to move back to the U.K. together: +1200

Since stepping back from royal duties in 2020, the Sussexes have built a sprawling media empire, landing multimillion-dollar deals with Netflix, Spotify, and Archewell Productions. But recent setbacks, including the end of their Spotify deal and reports of internal strain at Archewell, have raised questions about their next chapter.

The latest betting odds on a potential Sussex split come just weeks after reports that Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s marriage has hit another rough patch, with insiders claiming the couple is “fighting tooth and nail” to stay together.

According to Star magazine, sources claim the Duke of Sussex feels increasingly drawn to reconnect with his home country and royal roots, particularly for the sake of his children. But Meghan Markle is reportedly not on board.  “They want different things,” the source said, describing their disagreements as “deep and emotional.”

The alleged divide comes at a time when the couple’s public appearances have grown increasingly rare, and sources say the tug-of-war between their U.K. and U.S. lifestyles has become one of their biggest stressors.

An insider told The Daily Mail that “Kim is p-ssed off” about the situation, claiming she didn’t understand the couple’s sudden objection to being photographed. “Kim was like, ‘You’ve already been photographed outside the party and at the Baby2Baby event the same night, so what’s the problem?’” the source said.

The Sussexes reportedly attended the Baby2Baby gala in West Hollywood to support close friend Serena Williamsbefore heading to Jenner’s “James Bond”–themed bash in Beverly Hills. But according to Page Six, a representative for the couple contacted the Kardashians after the event to request that the photos be taken down from Instagram.

Between strained family ties, conflicting visions for the future, and growing scrutiny from both royal watchers and Hollywood insiders, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle appear to be at a defining crossroads, one that could determine the next chapter of their personal and professional lives.

While there’s no official confirmation of marital trouble, betting markets have become a bellwether for royal watchers, reflecting both fan sentiment and the unpredictable dynamics of the modern monarchy.